Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545946 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jerry Knox (0000-0002-0473-6440, Cranfield University, corresponding author), André Daccache (0000-0002-4093-2182, Istituto Agronomico Mediterraneo di Bari), Tim Hess (0000-0001-5834-4269, Cranfield University), David Haro‐Monteagudo (0000-0002-7885-8248, Cranfield University), David Haro |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 113004-113004 |
| Publication date | 2016-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/113004 |
| OpenAlex | W2556672215 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 11 |
| References cited | 21 |
Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (−11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed
Agriculture · Agroforestry · Agronomy · Biology · Climate change · Crop · Crop yield · Economics · Food security · Geography · Productivity · Sugar beet · Yield (engineering · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Plant responses to elevated CO2 · Ecology
Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe
Focus on agriculture and forestry benefits of reducing climate change impacts
Understanding inter-farm inequalities in extreme weather event impacts
Temporal effects of climate and soil fertility‐mediated maize yield and its sustainability
Sustainable food systems—a health perspective
Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems
The geography of megatrends affecting European agriculture
Agroforestry creates carbon sinks whilst enhancing the environment in agricultural landscapes in Europe
Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle
How much does climate change add to the challenge of feeding the planet this century
Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture
Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)
The DSSAT cropping system model
Climate change risks for African agriculture
Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields
A sweet deal? Sugarcane, water and agricultural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa
| Unique citing works | 11 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,22 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2024 (8) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 11 |