Global soil organic carbon sequestration potential under sustainable food systems and climate mitigation

Bibliographic Data

ID15547147
AuthorsDianti Farhana Kamasela (0009-0008-8532-4886, Kyoto Katsura Hospital, corresponding author), Shinichiro Fujimori (0000-0001-7897-1796, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Tomoko Hasegawa (0000-0003-2456-5789, Ritsumeikan University), Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan (0000-0002-1117-1812, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad)
Year2025
Volume20
Issue12
Pages124062-124062
Publication date2025-12-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ae2637
OpenAlexW7108206120
LanguageEN
References cited53

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is a key nature-based solution to mitigate climate change. Previous studies have highlighted its potential and the role of improve management practice, but many relied on static land-use assumptions or limited spatial data, overlooking socio-economic and climate-driven changes that affect land availability. This study assessed the global SOC sequestration potential of cropland and bioenergy land under three land-use pathways: business as-usual (BAU), a sustainable food system (FOOD), and a 2 °C climate target (2°). Our results show that both climate and food policies may influence SOC sequestration through land-use changes. Under the 2 °C scenario, large-scale expansion of bioenergy crops could increase SOC stocks by about 7% (∼9 Gt CO2). In contrast, the FOOD scenario achieves only modest SOC gains, slightly lower than BAU (−1.59 Gt CO2). This because dietary shifts reduce pasture demand but do not significantly change cropland area, and bioenergy deployment is limited. While plant-based diets improve food system efficiency and reduce emissions, their SOC benefits are indirect and depend on how freed-up land is used for mitigation, such as afforestation or bioenergy production. Regions with significant bioenergy expansion—such as Latin America, reforming economies, and OECD/EU countries—show the highest SOC gains. Regions with large cropland areas, including the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, contribute 70% of the global potential. Moreover substantial SOC potential can be realized at a cost below $100 per ton of CO2, highlighting SOC sequestration as a feasible and economically viable climate mitigation strategy. Our study findings underscore the trade-offs between food system transformation, land-use efficiency, and carbon storage, and emphasize that climate policies promoting bioenergy expansion can achieve substantial SOC gains, while dietary policies alone have limited impact if without strategic land management

Afforestation · Bioenergy · Carbon sequestration · Climate change · Climate change mitigation · Greenhouse gas · Land use · Soil carbon · Sustainability · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact · Agroforestry and silvopastoral systems · Bioenergy crop production and management

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