Blue in green
Forestation turns blue water green, mitigating heat at the expense of water availability
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547192 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Olivier Asselin (0000-0003-3621-2737, Ouranos, corresponding author), Martin Leduc (0000-0002-1596-3788, Ouranos), Dominique Paquin (0000-0002-1353-930X, Ouranos), Nathalie De Noblet‐ducoudré (Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives), Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Diana Rechid (0000-0002-6035-2935, German Climate Computing Centre), Ralf Ludwig (0000-0002-4225-4098, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 114003-114003 |
| Publication date | 2024-09-11 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad796c |
| OpenAlex | W4402433479 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 55 |
In order to meet a stringent carbon budget, shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) aligned with the Paris Agreement typically require substantial land-use changes (LUC), such as large-scale forestation and bioenergy crop plantations. What if such a low-emission, intense-LUC scenario actually materialized? This paper quantifies the biophysical effects of LUC under SSP1-2.6 using an ensemble of regional climate simulations over Europe. We find that LUC projected over the 21st century, primarily broadleaf-tree forestation at the expense of grasslands, reduce summertime heat extremes significantly over large swaths of continental Europe. In fact, cooling from LUC trumps warming by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in milder heat extremes by 2100 for about half of the European population. Forestation brings heat relief by shifting the partition of turbulent energy fluxes away from sensible and towards latent heat fluxes. Impacts on the water cycle are then assessed. Forestation enhances precipitation recycling over continental Europe, but not enough to match the boost of evapotranspiration (green water flux). Run-off (blue water flux) is reduced as a consequence. Some regions experience severe drying in response. In other words, forestation turns blue water green, bringing heat relief but compromising water availability in some already-dry regions
Afforestation · Agroforestry · Atmospheric sciences · Evapotranspiration · Geography · Greenhouse gas · Hydrology (agriculture · Latent heat · Meteorology · Sensible heat · Water cycle · Water resource management · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Ecology · Geology
Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover
Trading Water for Carbon with Biological Carbon Sequestration
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration
Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – Hyde 3.2
Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations
Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Biophysical effects on temperature and precipitation due to land cover change
Greening vegetation cools mean and extreme near-surface air temperature in China
Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the Image model
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Trees, forests and water
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |