A universal model for predicting human migration under climate change
Examining future sea level rise in Bangladesh
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547255 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Keith F Davis (0000-0003-4504-1407, The Nature Conservancy, corresponding author), Abinash Bhattachan (0000-0002-7102-8233, North Carolina State University), Paolo D’odorico (0000-0002-0007-5833, University of California, Berkeley), Samir Suweis (0000-0002-1603-8375, Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Padova) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 064030-064030 |
| Publication date | 2018-06-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d4 |
| OpenAlex | W2808694096 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 21 |
| References cited | 57 |
Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 10 9 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings
Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Destinations · Geography · Habitability · Population · Tourism · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Disaster Management and Resilience · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Demography · Ecology
Everyday mobility and changing livelihood trajectories
Understanding the Climate Change-Migration Nexus through the Lens of Household Surveys
Sea-level rise and human migration
Climate change driven natural disasters and influence on poverty in the South Western Coastal Region of Bangladesh (SWCRB)
Time to travel
Who prioritizes safety from natural disasters in residential selection? Insights from a Japanese survey
Post-cyclonic migration in coastal areas
Farm level adaptation to climate change
Modeling urban development and its exposure to river flood risk in Southeast Asia
Climate change-induced migration
From conflict to climate
The plight of some of the poorest of the poor
Decision‐making factor interactions influencing climate migration
Climate change and migration
Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration
Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa
Scales and sensitivities in climate vulnerability, displacement, and health
Climate-induced cross-border migration and change in demographic structure
Evacuees and Migrants Exhibit Different Migration Systems After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
Nationalist ideology, rightwing populism, and public views about climate change in Europe
State of World Population 2015
Population displacement after cyclone and its consequences
Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment
A universal model for mobility and migration patterns
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration
Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation
Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones
A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes
Effective sea-level rise and deltas
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century
Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan
Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Why the numbers don’t add up
Preparing for a Warmer World
Measuring the environmental dimensions of human migration
Global exposure to river and coastal flooding
The effect of environmental change on human migration
The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa
Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh
Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change
Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso
Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility
Migration and climate change
Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh
Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration
Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh
| Citations per year | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Highly cited | No |