Arctic summer sea ice loss will accelerate in coming decades
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547387 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Anna Poltronieri (0000-0001-7101-3456, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, corresponding author), Nils Bochow (0000-0003-4578-5780, UiT The Arctic University of Norway), Nikolas Aksamit (0000-0002-2610-7258, UiT The Arctic University of Norway), Niklas Boers (0000-0002-1239-9034, Technical University of Munich), Per Kristen Jakobsen (0000-0003-4197-5309, UiT The Arctic University of Norway), Martin Rypdal (0000-0003-0053-665X, UiT The Arctic University of Norway) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 074032-074032 |
| Publication date | 2024-05-29 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5194 |
| OpenAlex | W4399119295 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 29 |
The Arctic sea ice (ASI) is expected to decrease with further global warming. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the temperature range that would lead to a completely ice-free Arctic. Here, we combine satellite data and a large suite of models from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to develop an empirical, observation-based projection of the September ASI area for increasing global mean surface temperature (GMST) values. This projection harnesses two simple linear relationships that are statistically supported by both observations and model data. First, we show that the September ASI area is linearly proportional to the area inside a specific northern hemisphere January–September mean temperature contour T c . Second, we use observational data to show how zonally averaged temperatures have followed a positive linear trend relative to the GMST, consistent with Arctic amplification. To ensure the reliability of these observations throughout the rest of the century, we validate this trend by employing the CMIP6 ensemble. Combining these two linear relationships, we show that the September ASI area decrease will accelerate with respect to the GMST increase. Our analysis of observations and CMIP6 model data suggests a complete loss of the September ASI (area below 10 6 km 2 ) for global warming between 1.5 ∘ C and 2.2 ∘ C above pre-industrial GMST levels
Algorithm · Arctic · Climatology · Meteorology · Northern Hemisphere · Physics · Satellite · Sea ice · Sea surface temperature · The arctic · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography
| Highly cited | No |
|---|