Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547442 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Svetlana Jevrejeva (0000-0001-9490-4665, National Oceanography Centre, corresponding author), Luke P Jackson (0000-0001-6834-8255, New College), Aslak Grinsted (0000-0003-1634-6009, University of Copenhagen), Daniël Lincke (0000-0003-4250-5077, Global Climate Forum), Ben Marzeion (0000-0002-6185-3539, University of Bremen) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 074014-074014 |
| Publication date | 2018-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aacc76 |
| OpenAlex | W2810200823 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 24 |
| References cited | 49 |
We estimate a median global sea level rise up to 52 cm (25–87 cm, 5th–95th percentile) and up to 63 cm (27−112 cm, 5th—95th percentile) for a temperature rise of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C by 2100 respectively. We also estimate global annual flood costs under these scenarios and find the difference of 11 cm global sea level rise in 2100 could result in additional losses of US$ 1.4 trillion per year (0.25% of global GDP) if no additional adaptation is assumed from the modelled adaptation in the base year. If warming is not kept to 2 °C, but follows a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), global annual flood costs without additional adaptation could increase to US$ 14 trillion per year and US$ 27 trillion per year for global sea level rise of 86 cm (median) and 180 cm (95th percentile), reaching 2.8% of global GDP in 2100. Upper middle income countries are projected to experience the largest increase in annual flood costs (up to 8% GDP) with a large proportion attributed to China. High income countries have lower projected flood costs, in part due to their high present-day protection standards. Adaptation could potentially reduce sea level induced flood costs by a factor of 10. Failing to achieve the global mean temperature targets of 1.5 °C or 2 °C will lead to greater damage and higher levels of coastal flood risk worldwide
Climate change · Climatology · Flood myth · Geography · Global warming · Percentile · Physical geography · Sea level · Sea level rise · Statistics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Geophysics and Gravity Measurements · Mathematics · Geology · Oceanography
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C
Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries
Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
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Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
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The rising tide
| Unique citing works | 24 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,43 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2026 (8) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 24 |