Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547460 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Matt Hawcroft (0000-0002-0311-974X, University of Exeter, corresponding author), E Walsh (0000-0002-2118-6241, University of Exeter), Kevin I Hodges (0000-0003-0894-229X, University of Reading), Kevin Hodges (0000-0002-7724-5271), Giuseppe Zappa (0000-0003-4306-7451, University of Reading) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124006-124006 |
| Publication date | 2018-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59 |
| OpenAlex | W2898683004 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 7 |
| References cited | 39 |
For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climatology · Cyclone (programming language · Extratropical cyclone · Geography · Meteorology · Middle latitudes · Northern Hemisphere · Precipitation · Storm · Winter storm · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology · Oceanography
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| Unique citing works | 7 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2025 (7) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 7 |