The influence of non-CO 2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547737 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Katarzyna Tokarska (0000-0001-8887-8798, University of Victoria, corresponding author), Nathan P Gillett (0000-0002-2957-0002, Environment and Climate Change Canada), Vivek K Arora (0000-0002-2620-9342, Environment and Climate Change Canada), Warren G Lee (0000-0001-7121-2148, Environment and Climate Change Canada), Kirsten Zickfeld (0000-0001-8866-6541, Simon Fraser University) |
| Year | 2018 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 034039-034039 |
| Publication date | 2018-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaafdd |
| OpenAlex | W2790297778 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 23 |
Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature threshold. Non-CO2 forcings have a net warming effect in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, leading to reductions in remaining carbon budgets based on CO2 forcing alone. Carbon budgets consistent with limiting warming to below 2.0 °C, with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, were assessed in inconsistent ways by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making the effects of non-CO2 forcings hard to identify. Here we use a consistent approach to compare 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C carbon budgets with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, using CO2-only and RCP8.5 simulations. The median allowable carbon budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming are reduced by 257 PgC and 418 PgC, respectively, and the uncertainty ranges on the budgets are reduced by more than a factor of two when accounting for the net warming effects of non-CO2 forcings. While our overall results are consistent with IPCC, we use a more robust methodology, and explain the narrower uncertainty ranges of carbon budgets when non-CO2 forcings are included. We demonstrate that most of the reduction in carbon budgets is a result of the direct warming effect of the non-CO2 forcings, with a secondary contribution from the influence of the non-CO2 forcings on the carbon cycle. Such carbon budgets are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation, thus understanding the influence of non-CO2 forcings on these budgets and their uncertainties is critical
Atmospheric sciences · Carbon cycle · Carbon fibers · Climate change · Climatology · Ecosystem · Forcing (mathematics · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Limiting · Radiative forcing · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Mathematics
Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide
Modeling the non-CO2 contribution to climate change
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Climate and carbon budget implications of linked future changes in CO 2 and non-CO 2 forcing
Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
The representative concentration pathways
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases
Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO 2 forcings
| Unique citing works | 8 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,14 |
| Citation span | 2019 - 2023 (5) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 8 |