Assessing the long-term interactions of climate change and timber markets on forest land and carbon storage

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the environmental and economic impacts of climate change on global and regional forests from now through 2200. By integrating the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios with climate models, a vegetation model, socio-economic scenarios, and a forest economic model, the study explores long run adjustments of both ecosystems and markets to climate change that have not been studied before. The ecological model suggests that global forest productivity increases under RCP 8.5. The overall supply of timber expands faster than demand through the 23rd century lowering timber prices and creating net benefits in the timber sector. Consumers benefit the most from the lower prices but these same low prices tend to damage forest owners, especially in the tropics. Even without a formal sequestration policy, average global forest carbon is projected to increase by 6%–8% by 2100. Under the RCP 2.6, forest carbon remains stable through 2200 but under RCP 8.5 it is simulated to increase by another 8% with a very heterogeneous distribution across world regions. Under both RCPs, global forest area is projected to increase relative to a no-climate change case until 2150, but possibly decline thereafter

Agroforestry · Carbon dioxide · Carbon sequestration · Climate change · Climate change mitigation · Climate model · Economics · Ecosystem · Forest ecology · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Natural resource economics · Productivity · Representative Concentration Pathways · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Environmental Science · Forest Management and Policy · Ecology

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• Forest sector models for tropical countries - A case study of Colombia

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• Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU

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• Global carbon storage in harvested wood products

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• Scoping review of carbon pricing systems in forest sector models

  Open Access•Tomke Honkomp, Franziska Schier•Environmental Research Letters•2023

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• Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways

  Open Access•Jianheng Zhao, Adam Daigneault et al.•Ecological Economics•2023

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• Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways

  Open Access•Adam Daigneault, Alice Favero•Land Use Policy•2021

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• Modeling the effects of carbon payments and forest owner cooperatives on carbon storage and revenue in Pacific Northwest forestlands

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• Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

  Open Access•John T Abatzoglou, Park Williams et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2016

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• Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes

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• Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

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• An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration

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• Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry

  Open Access•Robert H Beach, Yongxia Cai et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2015

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• Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

  Open Access•Xiaohui Tian, Brent Sohngen et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2016

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• Regional economic impacts of climate change and adaptation in Canadian forests

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• Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

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• The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications

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