The role of humidity in determining future electricity demand in the southeastern United States
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547896 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Deeksha Rastogi (0000-0002-0462-4027, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, corresponding author), Flavio Lehner (0000-0003-4632-9701, NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory), Teja Kuruganti (0000-0003-3704-4026, Oak Ridge National Laboratory), Katherine J Evans (0000-0001-8174-6450, Oak Ridge National Laboratory), Kuldeep Kurte (0000-0001-5797-7654, Oak Ridge National Laboratory), Jibonananda Sanyal (0000-0002-7789-3199, Oak Ridge National Laboratory) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 114017-114017 |
| Publication date | 2021-10-15 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2fdf |
| OpenAlex | W3205081756 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 18 |
Co-occurrence of high relative humidity levels and high temperatures can increase human discomfort, thereby affecting electricity requirements for space cooling. While relative humidity is generally projected to decrease over land in a warming climate, the combined impact of warming and changes in humidity on heat stress, and thus electricity demand, are less clear. To evaluate the role of relative humidity in determining future electricity demand, we first develop predictive models based, separately, on temperature (T) and a heat stress index (apparent temperature (AT)) at an hourly scale using meteorological reanalysis data and electricity load from the United States Energy Information Administration over the four electricity regions in the southeastern United States. The AT model performs better than the T model in the historical period. We then apply the predictive models to a set of high-resolution climate projections to understand the role of relative humidity in determining the electricity demand in a warmer climate. Due to the nonlinear behavior of heat stress with warming, future electricity demand is substantially larger when estimated from AT than from T. The increase in demand projected by AT ranges between 16%-29%, 20%-33%, 14%-32% and 13%-26% and that by T model ranges between 12%-19%, 15%-19%, 14%-22% and 12%-20% over Southeast, Florida, Carolina, and Tennessee respectively. This amplification of electricity demand by humidity is strongest for the highest temperature quantiles, but also occurs at moderate future temperatures that coincide with elevated relative humidity episodes, emphasizing the importance of considering humidity in future heat stress and electricity demand assessments
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climatology · Electricity · Electricity demand · Electricity generation · Geography · Heat index · Humidity · Meteorology · Power (physics · Relative humidity · Thermodynamics · Building Energy and Comfort Optimization · Climate variability and models · Energy Load and Power Forecasting · Environmental Science · Ecology
The ERA‐Interim reanalysis
Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit
An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures paradoxically dampen increases in extreme humid-heat
Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,33 |
| Citation span | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |