A low-order dynamical model for fire-vegetation-climate interactions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15547998 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Soong‐Ki Kim (0000-0001-6586-780X, Yonsei University), Axel Timmermann (0000-0003-0657-2969, Institute for Basic Science), Jin‐Soo Kim (0000-0003-0631-2294, City University of Hong Kong), Roman Olson (0000-0002-8233-9467, Yonsei University), Soon‐Il An (0000-0002-0003-429X, Pohang University of Science and Technology, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 094004-094004 |
| Publication date | 2022-08-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8696 |
| OpenAlex | W4289687826 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 35 |
Climate conditions play a key role in determining the occurrence and severity of wildfires. Despite the impacts of wildfires on ecosystems, human livelihoods, and air quality, little is known conceptually about how natural or anthropogenic shifts in climate may influence the fire activity on a regional or global scale. Here, we introduce a new low order dynamical model that describes the nonlinear interactions between climate, vegetation (fire fuel) and fire probabilities. This 1-dimensional model describes the influence of precipitation and temperature on burned area and fuel availability. Estimating key parameters from observations, the model successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal variability of wildfire occurrences, particularly, in semi-arid regions in Africa, South America, and northern Australia. The fidelity of the model translates into a high degree of longer-term predictability of fire conditions in these vulnerable regions. Our new low-order modeling framework may provide guidance to forestry managers to assess fire risks under present and future climate conditions
Arid · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Ecosystem · Environmental resource management · Fire regime · Geography · Livelihood · Meteorology · Precipitation · Predictability · Vegetation (pathology · Environmental Science · Fire effects on ecosystems · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Rangeland and Wildlife Management · Ecology
A human-driven decline in global burned area
Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset
The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire
Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
Climate–vegetation–fire interactions and feedbacks
Predicting climate change effects on wildfires requires linking processes across scales
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |