Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548006 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Anders Ahlström (0000-0003-1642-0037, Lund University, corresponding author), Guy Schurgers (0000-0002-2189-1995, Lund University), Almut Arneth (0000-0001-6616-0822, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology), Benjamin Smith (0000-0003-1215-4093, Lund University) |
| Year | 2012 |
| Volume | 7 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044008-044008 |
| Publication date | 2012-10-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008 |
| OpenAlex | W2133536153 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 19 |
We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with tropical uncertainties these discrepancies accumulate over time, resulting in large differences in total carbon uptake over the coming century (−0.97–2.27 Pg C yr ^−1 during 2006–2100). The terrestrial biosphere becomes a net source of carbon in ten of the 18 simulations adding to the atmospheric CO _2 concentrations, while the remaining eight simulations indicate an increased sink of carbon
Atmospheric sciences · Biosphere · Carbon cycle · Carbon sink · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Ecosystem · Geography · Latitude · Meteorology · Precipitation · Primary production · Tropics · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Ecology · Geology
The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO 2 sink
The terrestrial carbon budget of South and Southeast Asia
Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling
Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management
The large influence of climate model bias on terrestrial carbon cycle simulations
Disentangling climate-driven and anthropogenic activities-induced impacts on net ecosystem productivity in the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau over the past two decades
Ozone — the persistent menace
Historical and future quantification of terrestrial carbon sequestration from a Greenhouse-Gas-Value perspective
Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making
Robust projections of increasing land carbon storage in boreal and temperate forests under future climate change scenarios
Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California
Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming
High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes
Vegetation biomass change in China in the 20th century
Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle
Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO 2 and implications for climate change
The impacts of tropical cyclones on the net carbon balance of eastern US forests (1851–2000)
Climate data induced uncertainty in model-based estimations of terrestrial primary productivity
Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia
| Unique citing works | 19 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,36 |
| Citation span | 2012 - 2025 (14) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 19 |