The positive economic impacts of technical progress induced by major natural disasters

Empirical evidence from China

Bibliographic Data

ID15548405
AuthorsWei Ding (0000-0002-2596-3677, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, corresponding author), Jidong Wu (0000-0001-8208-8373, Beijing Normal University), Rumei Tang (0000-0003-0809-2125, Beijing Normal University)
Year2026
Volume21
Issue5
Pages054009-054009
Publication date2026-02-19
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ae4818
OpenAlexW7130572579
LanguageEN
References cited31

Major natural disasters inflict huge direct damage and far-reaching indirect economic impacts. To drive faster and better recovery, global efforts prioritize postdisaster restoration and reconstruction. While some studies note the positive effects of postdisaster technical progress, its nature remains unclear. Building on Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction,’ large-scale reconstruction—though a byproduct of disasters—may drive technological renewal, optimize industrial structure, and generate potential positive economic impacts. This study pioneers the integration of matrix transformation and IO table forecasting to simulate dynamic technical coefficient matrices, offering unprecedented insights into technological evolution following the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. By innovatively embedding technical progress effects into the adaptive regional input–output model, we quantified their economic dividends—revealing striking technological leaps in resource- and technology-intensive sectors, largely driven by large-scale external assistance under China’s national system. Counterfactual analyses show Sichuan’s indirect economic losses (IELs) would be underestimated by 98.3% if the nondisaster economic development trends were ignored; conversely, neglecting technical progress could lead to a 6.4-fold overestimation of IELs. These findings position postdisaster technological renewal and industrial upgrades as pivotal drivers of economic recovery and resilience—offering transformative guidance for global reconstruction strategies while validating the ‘double negative yields positive’ disaster theory in economics

Counterfactual thinking · Economic impact analysis · Empirical evidence · LEAPS · Natural disaster · Position (finance · Technical progress · Technological change · Disaster Management and Resilience · Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis · Regional resilience and development

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