El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions simultaneously reduce the production of multiple cereals across India

Bibliographic Data

ID15548411
AuthorsMadhulika Gurazada (0009-0000-4215-4583, Washington State University Vancouver, corresponding author), Sonali McDermid (0000-0002-4244-772X, Goddard Institute for Space Studies), Ruth Defries (0000-0002-3332-4621, Columbia University), Keith F Davis (0000-0003-4504-1407, Pearson (United States)), Jitendra Singh (0000-0002-0951-4097, ETH Zurich), Deepti Singh (0000-0001-5736-8699, Washington State University Vancouver)
Year2024
Volume19
Issue10
Pages104059-104059
Publication date2024-08-02
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f
OpenAlexW4401241956
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited43

Natural climate phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence the Indian monsoon and thereby the region’s agricultural systems. Understanding their influence can provide seasonal predictability of agricultural production metrics to inform decision-making and mitigate potential food security challenges. Here, we analyze the effects of ENSO and IOD on four agricultural production metrics (production, harvested area, irrigated area, and yields) for rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet across India from 1968 to 2015. El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in the production and yields of multiple crops. Impacts vary considerably by crop and geography. Maize and pearl millet experience large declines in both production and yields when compared to other grains in districts located in the northwest and southern peninsular regions. Associated with warmer and drier conditions during El Niño, >70% of all crop districts experience lower production and yields. Impacts of positive-IODs exhibit relatively more spatial variability. La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous increases in all production metrics across the crops, particularly benefiting traditional grains. Variations in impacts of ENSO and IOD on different cereals depend on where they are grown and differences in their sensitivity to climate conditions. We compare production metrics for each crop relative to rice in overlapping rainfed districts to isolate the influence of climate conditions. Maize production and yields experience larger reductions relative to rice, while pearl millet production and yields also experience reductions relative to rice during El Niños and positive-IODs. However, sorghum experiences enhanced production and harvested areas, and finger millet experiences enhanced production and yields. These findings suggest that transitioning from maize and rice to these traditional cereals could lower interannual production variability associated with natural climate variations

Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Agronomy · Biology · Climatology · Crop · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Food security · Geography · Indian Ocean Dipole · Meteorology · Monsoon · Predictability · Production (economics · Sorghum · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Geology

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