Incorporating path dependency into downscaled SSP narratives

Lessons from Jakarta

Bibliographic Data

ID15548412
AuthorsAlexandre Pereira Santos (0000-0003-4938-3455, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, corresponding author), Jan Petzold (0000-0003-0508-3362, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München), Gusti Ayu Ketut Surtiari (0000-0003-3759-1986), Gusti Ayu Ketut Ketut Surtiari (National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia), Charlotta Mirbach (0000-0002-1669-185X, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München), Matthias Garschagen (0000-0001-9492-4463, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)
Year2026
Volume21
Issue5
Pages054006-054006
Publication date2026-02-17
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ae46b1
OpenAlexW7129566854
LanguageEN
References cited53

Scenario development faces the tension between broadening the range of future possibilities to address uncertainty and the path dependency inherited from historical conditions. This unresolved tension affects adaptation to future risks, especially at the local level, resulting in uncertainty that has prevented effective governance, mainstreaming across policy instruments, and transformative implementation. In this paper, we contribute to the growing literature on local risk and adaptation scenarios, reconciling local extensions of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with context-specific path dependency analysis focused on urban development dynamics. To do so, we first extend the global SSPs to provide regional narratives for the Metropolitan Region of Jakarta, a rapidly developing megacity in Southeast Asia. Second, we reconcile the scenarios with path dependencies from urban development processes (e.g. sprawl and urbanisation) across each narrative. Finally, we provide context-rich regional information to strengthen the salience and legitimacy of the scenarios. To achieve these results, we implement participatory scenario development and urban dynamics cross-analysis under the path dependency lens. Our findings show that the region’s narratives extend and contrast with assumptions found in the global narratives (e.g. SSP1 leads to higher inequality). Moreover, the regional narratives need to be compatible with idiosyncrasies regarding the region’s national role (e.g. global economic hub) and tensions from inter-municipal competition and informality, for example. The urban dynamics in the region also foreground strong path-dependent trends for future adaptation preconditions. Major urban interventions, such as sea walls and transit-oriented systems, concentrate investment and restrict the distributive aspects of future pathways. Additionally, sprawl and gentrification are present across all future pathways and may sap adaptation effectiveness while reproducing substantial development inequality. These results strengthen informed decision-making by providing context-rich data. They also contribute to scenario development more broadly by setting the stage for transformative policy scenarios assumptions, reducing uncertainty and increasing salience and fairness

City region · Dependency (UML · Metropolitan area · Narrative · Sustainable development · Urban planning · Urban resilience · Urban sprawl · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Regional resilience and development · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

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