Climate change shifts agropastoral-pastoral margins in Africa putting food security and livelihoods at risk
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548436 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Uday Nidumolu (0009-0000-6844-5434, Agriculture and Food, corresponding author), David Gobbett (0000-0003-3982-3162, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Peter Hayman (South Australian Research and Development Institute), Mark Howden (0000-0002-0386-9671, Australian National University), John Dixon (0000-0002-3972-6437, Agriculture and Food), Anton Vrieling (0000-0002-7979-1540, University of Twente) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Pages | 095003-095003 |
| Publication date | 2022-08-23 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac87c1 |
| OpenAlex | W4292707742 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 43 |
Climate is one of the key factors determining the suitability of land for agricultural production and influencing the spatial transition between grazing and cropping-dominated farming systems in Africa. We identified the climate indices that best align with the margin between the Agropastoral and Pastoral Farming Systems in the historical climate (1981–2006). We then used global climate model results to assess how these agropastoral-pastoral margins are likely to shift by 2050 as a consequence of forecasted climate change. We found that the agropastoral-pastoral margin will retreat across Africa resulting in less area climatically suited for productive agropastoral practices. Depending on the climate model, climate index and projections used, the conversion of land currently suitable for agropastoral production to land suitable for pastoral production across the continent leads to a reduction of the current 4.43 M km 2 of Agropastoral Farming Systems to between 1.2 M km 2 and 3.6 M km 2 . This reduction of 27%–81% of the Agropastoral zone would threaten food security and livelihoods in those areas. While we did not assess this aspect, the retreat of the agropastoral-pastoral margin may be offset by the conversion of higher rainfall zones to suitability for agropastoral production which would expand the area suitable for the Agropastoral Farming System. Identifying the locations and vulnerability to the climatic shifts along agropastoral-pastoral margins can help policy makers and planners to define strategies for improving the long-term resilience of livelihoods to climate change
Agricultural productivity · Agriculture · Agroforestry · Climate change · Food security · Geography · Livelihood · Livestock · Pastoralism · Vulnerability (computing · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology · Ecology · Forestry
Emerging trends in global freshwater availability
The global distribution of cultivable lands
Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change
Climate change risks for African agriculture
A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change
Environmental Change and Farmer-Herder Conflict in Agro-Pastoral West Africa
Earth observation for drought risk financing in pastoral systems of sub-Saharan Africa
Croppers to livestock keepers
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation
East Africa's Pastoralist Emergency
The use and misuse of the ‘length of growing period’ concept
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |