Temperature and precipitation effects on agrarian economy in late imperial China

Bibliographic Data

ID15548530
AuthorsQing Pei (0000-0002-9699-2950, University of Hong Kong, corresponding author), David D Zhang (University of Hong Kong), Guodong Li (0000-0003-3137-8471), Philippe Foret (0000-0001-8567-8328, Nazarbayev University), Harry F Lee (0000-0001-5415-7845, University of Hong Kong)
Year2016
Volume11
Issue6
Pages064008-064008
Publication date2016-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064008
OpenAlexW2418185247
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited53

Climate change has been statistically proven to substantially influence the economy of early modern Europe, particularly in the long term. However, a detailed analysis of climate change and the economy of historical China remains lacking, particularly from a large-scale and quantitative perspective. This study quantitatively analyzes the relationship between climate change and the economy in late imperial China (AD 1600-1840) at the national level. This study also compares the findings on the relationship between climate change and the economy in late imperial China with those in early modern Europe. Results of multivariate regression and Granger causality analyses indicate that (1) climate change induces economic fluctuations in late imperial China, particularly in the long term; (2) given that the economic center is located in South China during the study period, temperature has a greater influence on the economy than precipitation; (3) the population of China is statistically proven to primarily act as consumers in the long term; and (4) given the long-term role of the Chinese population, the economic vulnerability in late imperial China under climate change is further increased and is higher than that in early modern Europe, whose population mainly acts as producers in the long term. In conclusion, the late imperial Chinese society has a high economic vulnerability to climate change. These findings revisit Malthusian theory and 'Great Divergence' theory by including the perspective of economic vulnerability under climate change during the study period. The role of the population must be investigated further to address the socioeconomic vulnerabilities under climate change

Agrarian society · Agriculture · China · Climate change · Development economics · Economics · Economy · Geography · Granger causality · Political economy of climate change · Population · Sociology · Vulnerability (computing · Historical Economic and Social Studies · Tree-ring climate responses · Demography · Ecology

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