The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548619 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Benjamin M Sanderson (0000-0001-8635-4624, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, corresponding author), Brian C O''Neill (0000-0001-7505-8897, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), J T Kiehl (0000-0001-5812-6552, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Gerald A Meehl (0000-0002-8760-9534, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), Reto Knutti (0000-0001-8303-6700, ETH Zurich), Warren M Washington (ETH Zurich) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 034005-034005 |
| Publication date | 2011-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005 |
| OpenAlex | W2171865973 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 30 |
Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50–100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300–400% increase above A1FI levels
Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Medicine · Oceanography
Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Four degrees and beyond
Mediterranean water cycle changes
Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century
Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,2 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2022 (12) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |