Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river–lake continuum

Insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040

Bibliographic Data

ID15548656
AuthorsAsim Zia (0000-0001-8372-6090, University of Vermont, corresponding author), Arne Bomblies (0000-0002-3597-2083, University of Vermont), Andrew W Schroth (0000-0001-5553-3208, University of Vermont), Christopher Koliba (0000-0002-1126-0372, University of Vermont), Peter D F Isles (0000-0003-4446-6788, University of Vermont), Yushiou Tsai (0000-0001-8348-6410, University of Vermont), Ibrahim Nourein Mohammed (0000-0002-6542-319X, University of Vermont), Gabriela Bucini (0000-0003-4876-2998, University of Vermont), Patrick J Clemins (0000-0002-7930-3025, University of Vermont), Scott Turnbull (0000-0003-4932-5327, University of Vermont), Morgan Rodgers (University of Vermont), Ahmed Abdeen Hamed (0000-0003-4411-8433, University of Vermont), Ahmed Hamed (0000-0003-2923-7012), Brian Beckage (0000-0002-5908-6924, University of Vermont), J M Winter (0000-0003-1261-4774, Dartmouth College), Jonathan Winter, E Carol Adair (0000-0002-8567-9045, University of Vermont), Carol Adair, Gillian L Galford (0000-0003-2192-7385, University of Vermont), Donna M Rizzo (0000-0003-4123-5028, University of Vermont), Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten (0000-0001-7043-6529, University of Vermont)
Year2016
Volume11
Issue11
Pages114026-114026
Publication date2016-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114026
OpenAlexW2549824490
LanguageEN
Citations received7
References cited43

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity through 2040 in transnational Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Bay. Temperature and precipitation inputs were statistically downscaled from four global circulation models (GCMs) for three Representative Concentration Pathways. An agent-based model was used to generate four LULCC scenarios. Combined climate and LULCC scenarios drove a distributed hydrological model to estimate river discharge and nutrient input to the lake. Lake nutrient dynamics were simulated with a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. We find accelerated GCC could drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality, but the nature and severity of this impact varies dramatically by GCM and GCC scenario

Biogeochemical cycle · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Geography · Hydrology (agriculture · Land cover · Land use · Meteorology · Precipitation · Water quality · Watershed · Environmental Science · Fish Ecology and Management Studies · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics · Ecology · Geology · Oceanography

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