Armed conflict as a catalyst for increasing flood risk

Bibliographic Data

ID15548886
AuthorsMohammed Basheer (0000-0001-9468-2249, University of Toronto, corresponding author), Nadir Ahmed Elagib (0000-0001-6252-7586, University of Cologne)
Year2024
Volume19
Issue10
Pages104034-104034
Publication date2024-09-03
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb6
OpenAlexW4402201611
LanguageEN
Citations received6
References cited39

Armed conflict has many adverse impacts beyond violence such as increasing risks of natural hazards. Analyses of the interactions between flood risks and armed conflict are essential for developing effective policies and strategies to address both challenges. This study aims to develop conceptual and analytical socio-hydrological frameworks for assessing how armed conflict can impact flood risks. The frameworks postulate a link between armed conflict and flood vulnerability, given that armed conflict creates unique challenges that exacerbate the effects of floods. Our conceptual framework identifies routes through which armed conflict affects vulnerability to floods, such as damage to infrastructure, population displacement and density, weak governance, and less awareness, resulting in lower resilience, higher susceptibility, and increased flood vulnerability and risk. Our analytical framework uses flood modeling to evaluate flood hazards and incorporates spatial data related to armed conflict zones, nighttime light, population classification by age, land price, land cover, and rural/urban areas classification. We take Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, as a case study in view of its armed conflict that erupted in 2023. By highlighting the linkages between armed conflict and flood risk, this study contributes to conceptualizing the broader interlinkages between conflict and environmental systems. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict analysis with disaster risk management strategies. We encourage collaboration between humanitarian, environmental, and security sectors to improve preparedness, response, and resilience in conflict-affected regions. While our analysis for Khartoum is based on conflict zones in the early stages of the conflict and uses simple estimates for conflict vulnerability contribution, the proposed frameworks provide groundwork for assessing changes in flood risk in Sudan and other conflict regions around the world

Armed conflict · Flood myth · Geography · Political science · Water resource management · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Hydrology and Drought Analysis

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access