Increasing interannual climate variability during crop flowering in Europe
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548938 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sebastian Bathiany (0000-0001-9904-1619, Fischer (Germany), corresponding author), Alexandre Belleflamme (0000-0002-1664-3479, Forschungszentrum Jülich), Juliane El Zohbi (0000-0003-0329-0552, Fischer (Germany)), Patrizia Ney (0000-0001-6821-8661), Klaus Goergen (0000-0002-4208-3444, Forschungszentrum Jülich), Diana Rechid (0000-0002-6035-2935, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044037-044037 |
| Publication date | 2023-03-29 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/acc87e |
| OpenAlex | W4361291451 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 59 |
Climate change has increasingly adverse effects on global crop yields through the occurrence of heat waves, water stress, and other weather-related extremes. Besides losses of average yields, a decrease in yield stability—i.e. an increase in variability of yields from year to year—poses economic risks and threatens food security. Here we investigate a number of climate indices related to adverse weather events during the flowering of wheat, maize and rapeseed, in the current cultivation areas as well as the main European producer countries. In 52 projections from regional climate models, we identify robust increases in the interannual variability of temperature, precipitation and soil moisture by ∼+20% in standard deviation in the model median. We find that winter wheat is most exposed to variability increases, whereas rapeseed flowering escapes the largest increases due to the early flowering time and the northern locations of cultivation areas, while the opposite (escape due to southern locations and late flowering) is true for maize to some extent. Considering the timing of crop development stages, we also find a robust increase in the variability of the temporal occurrence of flowering, which suggests a decreased reliability in the timing of crop stages, hampering management steps like fertilization, irrigation or harvesting. Our study raises concerns for European crop yield stability in a warmer climate and highlights the need for risk diversification strategies in agricultural adaptation
Agricultural diversification · Agriculture · Agronomy · Biology · Climate change · Climatology · Crop · Crop yield · Food security · Geography · Irrigation · Meteorology · Precipitation · Rapeseed · Yield (engineering · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Plant responses to elevated CO2 · Ecology
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries
Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe
An Ensemble Version of the E‐OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets
Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980
Euro-Cordex
Crop planting dates
Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales
Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas
Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981–2010 explained by climate change
Understanding and reproducing regional diversity of climate impacts on wheat yields
The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
| Highly cited | No |
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