Projected changes in seasonal and extreme summertime temperature and precipitation in India in response to Covid-19 recovery emissions scenarios
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548943 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jonathan D’Souza (0000-0002-5244-2930, Planetary Science Institute, corresponding author), Felix Prasanna (Boston Latin Academy), Luna-Nefeli Valayannopoulos-Akrivou (Boston Latin Academy), Peter Sherman (0000-0002-2140-0420, Planetary Science Institute), Elise Penn (0000-0002-5559-5748, Planetary Science Institute), Shaojie Song (0000-0001-6395-7422, Harvard University), Alexander T Archibald (0000-0001-9302-4180, University of Cambridge), Michael B Mcelroy (0000-0002-1354-167X, Planetary Science Institute) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 114025-114025 |
| Publication date | 2021-10-13 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1b |
| OpenAlex | W3205476001 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 31 |
Fossil fuel and aerosol emissions have played important roles on climate over the Indian subcontinent over the last century. As the world transitions toward decarbonization in the next few decades, emissions pathways could have major impacts on India’s climate and people. Pathways for future emissions are highly uncertain, particularly at present as countries recover from COVID-19. This paper explores a multimodel ensemble of Earth system models leveraging potential global emissions pathways following COVID-19 and the consequences for India’s summertime (June–July–August–September) climate in the near- and long-term. We investigate specifically scenarios which envisage a fossil-based recovery, a strong renewable-based recovery and a moderate scenario in between the two. We find that near-term climate changes are dominated by natural climate variability, and thus likely independent of the emissions pathway. By 2050, pathway-induced spatial patterns in the seasonally-aggregated precipitation become clearer with a slight drying in the fossil-based scenario and wetting in the strong renewable scenario. Additionally, extreme temperature and precipitation events in India are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency regardless of the emissions scenario, though the spatial patterns of these changes as well as the extent of the change are pathway dependent. This study provides an important discussion on the impacts of emissions recover pathways following COVID-19 on India, a nation which is likely to be particularly susceptible to climate change over the coming decades
Atmospheric sciences · Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Extreme weather · Fossil fuel · Geography · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Meteorology · Natural resource economics · Precipitation · Renewable energy · Representative Concentration Pathways · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate variability and models · COVID-19 impact on air quality · Environmental Science · Ecology · Geology
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The roads ahead
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2023 (2) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |