Spatial and temporal changes in wildfires and their attributes across the western United States
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15548948 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Amirhossein Montazeri (Boise State University, corresponding author), John T Abatzoglou (0000-0001-7599-9750, University of California, Merced), Jeffrey P Prestemon (0000-0001-8850-5668, US Forest Service), Karen C Short (0000-0002-3383-0460, US Forest Service), Erin J Belval (0000-0001-5895-5393, US Forest Service), Erin Belval, Zachary A Holden (0000-0002-4319-6491, US Forest Service), Zachary Holden, Jennifer Pierce (0000-0003-0754-7204, Boise State University), Jodi Mead (0000-0002-4403-9228, Boise State University), Yavar Pourmohamad (0000-0001-9925-8658, Boise State University), Ata Akbari Asanjan (0000-0002-8691-8212, Universities Space Research Association), Mojtaba Sadegh (0000-0003-1775-5445, Boise State University) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Pages | 074014 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-30 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ae58c0 |
| OpenAlex | W7143500446 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 59 |
It is widely perceived that wildfire activity has increased across the western United States (WUS), with studies generally focusing on large wildfires. This study examines changes in the number of wildfire ignitions and burned area in the WUS using a comprehensive record of more than 750,000 wildfire incidents from 1992 to 2020 across biophysical gradients, seasons, and ignition causes. It further analyzes the environmental conditions associated with elevated fire activity. Our analysis comparing the periods 1992-2006 and 2007-2020 indicates that the annual number of recorded wildfires (>0.04 ha) in the WUS declined by 31% despite a 40% increase in burned area. This finding denotes that although wildfire prevention and mitigation strategies have decreased the overall number of fires, environmental conditions promoted larger fire sizes. Burned area increased in both forested and non-forested areas and across human- and naturally-ignited fires, with the greatest increase (84%) observed in lightning-caused forest fires. The seasonality of natural ignitions remained largely unchanged from 1992-2020, whereas the average day of year of ignition for human-caused wildfires shifted >12 days earlier (statistically significant), driven by an increasing number of springtime ignitions across the WUS. Ignitions increasingly occurred on days with abnormally drier-hotter weather compared to their climatology. Our analysis also showed that the median Energy Release Component (ERC) activation threshold associated with wildfire ignitions was ~42 (interquartile range, IQR: 34-50 across ecoregions). Activation threshold refers to the fire danger level beyond which the number of ignitions increases markedly. This threshold for fire size area was ~50 (IQR: 43-60). Findings of this study provide critical information for the development of wildfire prevention and mitigation strategies
Air pollution · Air quality index · Climate change · Fire regime · Poison control · Seasonality · Fire Detection and Safety Systems · Fire effects on ecosystems · Knowledge Management and Technology
Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States
Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk
The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth
Estimating regression models with unknown break‐points
Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011
Increasing concurrence of wildfire drivers tripled megafire critical danger days in Southern California between1982 and 2018
Human and infrastructure exposure to large wildfires in the United States
Ecoregions of the Conterminous United States
| Highly cited | No |
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