Storm surge variability and prediction from Enso and tropical cyclones
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549046 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yi‐Cheng Tan (Hohai University), Yicheng Tan, Wei Zhang (0000-0002-5458-9581, Hohai University, corresponding author), Xiangbo Feng (0000-0003-4143-107X, National Centre for Atmospheric Science), Yipeng Guo (0000-0002-2473-2578, Ministry of Education and Child Care), A J F Hoitink (0000-0003-4996-185X, Wageningen University & Research) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 18 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 024016-024016 |
| Publication date | 2023-01-10 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/acb1c8 |
| OpenAlex | W4315433092 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 43 |
Storm surges are among the deadliest natural hazards, but understanding and prediction of year-to-year variability of storm surges is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that the interannual variability of observed storm surge levels can be explained and further predicted, through a process-based study in Hong Kong. We find that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a compound impact on storm surge levels through modulating tropical cyclones (TCs) and other forcing factors. The occurrence frequencies of local and remote TCs are responsible for the remaining variability in storm surge levels after removing the ENSO effect. Finally, we show that a statistical prediction model formed by ENSO and TC indices has good skill for prediction of extreme storm surge levels. The analysis approach can be applied to other coastal regions where tropical storms and the climate variability are main contributors to storm surges. Our study gives new insight into identifying ‘windows of opportunity’ for successful prediction of storm surges on long-range timescales
Climatology · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Forcing (mathematics · Geography · Meteorology · Natural hazard · Storm · Storm surge · Surge · Tropical cyclone · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |