Statistical seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice concentration based on spatiotemporal anomaly persistent method
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549070 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Gyu-Ri Lee (Sejong University, corresponding author), Sung‐Ho Woo (0009-0001-8552-2021), Sung-Ho Woo (0000-0002-4833-1111, Chonnam National University), Eun‐Hyuk Baek (0000-0002-2897-0784, Sejong University), Eun-Hyuk Baek, Joo‐Hong Kim (0000-0003-3087-9864, Korea Polar Research Institute), Baek‐Min Kim (0000-0002-1717-183X, Pukyong National University), Jee‐Hoon Jeong (0000-0002-3358-3949, Sejong University) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 11 |
| Pages | 114060 |
| Publication date | 2024-09-19 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7d1f |
| OpenAlex | W4402631730 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 77 |
Accurate prediction of Arctic sea ice is crucial for high-latitude and even mid-latitude climate prediction. It significantly affects atmospheric circulation, the environment, ecology, and maritime transport. This study developed a statistical prediction model to predict monthly Arctic sea ice concentration for up to one year based on the season-reliant empirical orthogonal functions (SEOFs) technique. Its prediction skill was compared with that of a dynamical prediction model. The spatiotemporal pattern of sea ice anomalies, which exhibit strong seasonality and are maintained for a significant period above the seasonal time scale by atmosphere-ocean interactions, was extracted using SEOFs. A prediction model was constructed by extrapolating from the recent anomalous state of sea ice to predict the future. Experimental retrospective predictions with monthly time resolution for 1982–2021 were performed to validate the prediction skill of Arctic sea ice concentration and areal extent. Statistically significant prediction skills were achieved over several months, even up to six months, exceeding the skill of the dynamical model
Anomaly (physics · Arctic · Arctic ice pack · Arctic sea ice decline · Atmospheric sciences · Climatology · Geography · Meteorology · Sea ice · Sea ice thickness · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Environmental Science · Geological Studies and Exploration · Geology · Oceanography
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification
Arctic sea ice decline
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss
| Highly cited | No |
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