A seasonal-scale climatological analysis correlating spring tornadic activity with antecedent fall–winter drought in the southeastern United States

Bibliographic Data

ID15549195
AuthorsJustin M Shepherd (0000-0002-7607-3332, University of Georgia, corresponding author), Marshall Shepherd, Dev Niyogi (0000-0002-1848-5080, Purdue University West Lafayette), Thomas L Mote (0000-0002-0021-0134, University of Georgia)
Year2009
Volume4
Issue2
Pages024012-024012
Publication date2009-04-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024012
OpenAlexW2096130323
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited33

Using rain gauge and satellite-based rainfall climatologies and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (1952–2007), this study found a statistically significant tendency for fall–winter drought conditions to be correlated with below-normal tornado days the following spring in north Georgia (i.e. 93% of the years) and other regions of the Southeast. Non-drought years had nearly twice as many tornado days in the study area as drought years and were also five to six times more likely to have multiple tornado days. Individual tornadic events are largely a function of the convective-mesoscale thermodynamic and dynamic environments, thus the study does not attempt to overstate predictability. Yet, the results may provide seasonal guidance in an analogous manner to the well known Sahelian rainfall and Cape Verde hurricane activity relationships

Climatology · Geography · Mesoscale meteorology · Meteorology · Predictability · Storm · Tornado · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology

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