Constraining future surface air temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549306 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jianyu Wang (0000-0001-9111-1846, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences), Pengxiang Zhai (0000-0002-1813-0159, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, corresponding author), Baiquan Zhou (0000-0002-3709-5336, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences), Chao Li (0000-0002-7543-3973, East China Normal University), Yang Chen (0000-0001-5943-3247, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 8 |
| Pages | 084051-084051 |
| Publication date | 2024-07-23 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6677 |
| OpenAlex | W4400918444 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 40 |
The rapid warming of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades has led to severe consequences, including the melting of glaciers and snow cover, which further accelerates warming. Accurately projecting the magnitude of future warming is crucial for effective climate change adaptation. However, the projection of future temperature change is model dependent. In this study, we demonstrate a significant correlation between the historical inter-model warming trend and future temperature change, suggesting this relationship could be used to calibrate the best estimate of projections and reduce the uncertainty by observations. For a high emission scenario, the constraint helps to narrow down the uncertainty range of annual and summer temperature change on the western TP by up to 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively, in the end of this century. The most substantial calibrated increase of future change is in winter by up to 2 °C, followed by autumn with an increase by about 1 °C. Discrepancies of historical warming trend among different observation datasets expose the largest impact on the constrained best estimate compared with emergent relationship derived from different climate models and warming trend in different historical periods
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climatology · Plateau (mathematics · Surface air temperature · Climate change and permafrost · Environmental Science · Mathematics · Geology · Oceanography
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
The representative concentration pathways
Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers
Impact of summer Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the variability of concurrent compound heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere
Anthropogenic warming of Tibetan Plateau and constrained future projection
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |