Separating the impacts of heat stress events from rising mean temperatures on winter wheat yield of China

Bibliographic Data

ID15549339
AuthorsBing Liu (0000-0003-2874-2746, Nanjing Agricultural University), Dongzheng Zhang (0000-0001-6581-971X, Nanjing Agricultural University), Huxin Zhang (0000-0003-1926-8894, Nanjing Agricultural University), Senthold Asseng (0000-0002-7583-3811), Tingwei Yin (Nanjing Agricultural University), Xiaolei Qiu (0000-0002-3881-2616, Nanjing Agricultural University), Zi Ye (0000-0002-8941-0406, Nanjing Agricultural University), Leilei Liu (0000-0001-5584-5746, Nanjing Agricultural University), Liang Tang (0000-0002-9360-1010, Nanjing Agricultural University), Weixing Cao (0000-0003-2624-5535, Nanjing Agricultural University, corresponding author), Yan Zhu (0000-0002-4955-2880, Nanjing Agricultural University, corresponding author)
Year2021
Volume16
Issue12
Pages124035-124035
Publication date2021-11-10
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ac3870
OpenAlexW3213572460
LanguageEN
References cited55

Warming due to climate change has profound impacts on regional crop yields, and this includes impacts from rising mean growing season temperature and heat stress events. Adapting to these two impacts could be substantially different, and the overall contribution of these two factors on the effects of climate warming and crop yield is not known. This study used the improved WheatGrow model, which can reproduce the effects of temperature change and heat stress, along with detailed information from 19 location-specific cultivars and local agronomic management practices at 129 research stations across the main wheat-producing region of China, to quantify the regional impacts of temperature increase and heat stress separately on wheat in China. Historical climate, plus two future low-warming scenarios (1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming above pre-industrial) and one future high-warming scenario (RCP8.5), were applied using the crop model, without considering elevated CO 2 effects. The results showed that heat stress and its yield impact were more severe in the cooler northern sub-regions than the warmer southern sub-regions with historical and future warming scenarios. Heat stress was estimated to reduce wheat yield in most of northern sub-regions by 2.0%–4.0% (up to 29% in extreme years) under the historical climate. Climate warming is projected to increase heat stress events in frequency and extent, especially in northern sub-regions. Surprisingly, higher warming did not result in more yield-impacting heat stress compared to low-warming, due to advanced phenology with mean warming and finally avoiding heat stress events during grain filling in summer. Most negative impacts of climate warming are attributed to increasing mean growing-season temperature, while changes in heat stress are projected to reduce wheat yields by an additional 1.0%–1.5% in northern sub-regions. Adapting to climate change in China must consider the different regional and temperature impacts to be effective

Agronomy · Atmospheric sciences · China · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Effects of global warming · Geography · Global warming · Growing season · Heat stress · Mean radiant temperature · Phenology · Yield (engineering · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Plant responses to elevated CO2 · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Ecology · Geology

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