Disentangling regional climate change
Assessing the contribution of global- and regional-scale anthropogenic factors to observed regional warming
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549476 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Armineh Barkhordarian (0000-0001-9786-8081, Universität Hamburg, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 124045-124045 |
| Publication date | 2024-11-06 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8f49 |
| OpenAlex | W4404096390 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 58 |
While the influence of uniformly-distributed well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions on global warming is well-documented and robustly attributed through multiple lines of evidence, regional attribution remains more challenging and dependent on the performance and resolution of climate models. This study investigates the extent to which observed regional temperature trends are attributable to global-scale anthropogenic factors, mainly the direct effects of CO 2 , aiming to differentiate the portion of the change attributable to regional-scale drivers and local feedback mechanisms. To quantify the contribution of global- and regional-scale climate drivers to observed temperature change, I conducted regression analyses using the observed temperature change in HadCRUT4 and the global warming index derived from global radiative forcing series. Results indicate that in certain regions—specifically West Asia, East N. America, West Africa, and the Amazon— 62 ± 7%, 61 ± 13%, 58 ± 7%, and 61 ± 10% of the warming observed over 1991–2020 can be attributed to global anthropogenic warming, primarily the direct effects of CO 2 . The remaining portion, which represents 22 ± 8%, 21 ± 16%, 27 ± 9%, 23 ± 14% of the observed warming, is attributable to regional drivers. The Mediterranean showcases high sensitivity, with regional drivers contributing 31 ± 13% of the observed 1.2 ∘ C warming, amplifying the warming attributed to global anthropogenic drivers, estimated at 55 ± 10%. The Arctic Ocean along with the Russian-Arctic region exhibits a substantial contribution from regional drivers and local feedback mechanisms (the indirect effects of CO 2 ) to the observed warming amplification, quantified at 43 ± 15% of the 3 ∘ C warming over 1991–2020. Regional cooling drivers, however, are significant in East Asia and the Tibetan Plateau, with the latter experiencing a cooling contribution of − 42 ± 17%. By breaking down the contributions of climate drivers into global and regional-scale components, we gain valuable insights into the local climate mechanisms responsible for the observed regional warming, which is a crucial factor that affects agriculture, ecosystems and societies
Climate change · Climatology · Geography · Global warming · Scale (ratio · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols
Attribution of extremes to greenhouse gas-induced changes in regional climate variability, distinct from changes in mean climate
Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change
Detection and attribution of climate change
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |