Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549533 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Colin Raymond (0000-0003-3093-5774, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, corresponding author), Laura Suárez‐Gutiérrez (0000-0002-0008-5943, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), Kai Kornhuber (0000-0001-5466-2059, Earth Island Institute), Madeleine Pascolini‐Campbell (0000-0002-6449-0841, Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Jana Sillmann (0000-0002-0219-5345, Universität Hamburg), Duane E Waliser (0000-0003-4603-0494, Jet Propulsion Laboratory) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 035005-035005 |
| Publication date | 2022-02-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5712 |
| OpenAlex | W4212889510 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 12 |
| References cited | 47 |
Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change. Situations in which hazards occur close enough to one another to result in amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or because hazards themselves are made more severe, are of special concern. We consider projected changes in such compounding hazards using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, which produces warming of about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) and 2100. We find that extreme heat events occurring on three or more consecutive days increase in frequency by 100%–300%, and consecutive extreme precipitation events increase in most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance of concurrent heat and drought leading to simultaneous maize failures in three or more breadbasket regions approximately doubles, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% more likely across much of the subtropics. Our results highlight the importance of taking compounding climate extremes into account when looking at possible tipping points of socio-environmental systems
Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate extremes · Climate model · Climatology · Compounding · Extreme heat · Geography · Global warming · Meteorology · Precipitation · Subtropics · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Ecology · Geology
Increasing concurrent exposure of global breadbaskets to reproductive heat extremes
Observed trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks
Earth system resilience and tipping behavior
Leveraging edge artificial intelligence for sustainable agriculture
Evidence for and projection of multi-breadbasket failure caused by climate change
To understand climate change adaptation, we must characterize climate variability
Temporal connections between extreme precipitation and humid heat
The future of hot and dry events in the breadbasket regions of maize
Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events
Increasing exposure of global croplands productivity to growing season heatwaves under climate warming
Temporal compounding increases economic impacts of floods in the southern U.S. cities
Evaluating the climate change adaptation of urban communities in Beijing, China
A typology of compound weather and climate events
Increasing trends in regional heatwaves
Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production
The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (Merra-2)
A framework for complex climate change risk assessment
Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures
Teleconnected food supply shocks
Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles
Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system
Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes
Confluent flow impacts of flood extremes in the middle Yellow River
| Unique citing works | 12 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 12 |