Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors
An integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549541 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kanishka B Narayan (0000-0001-8483-6216, Joint Global Change Research Institute, corresponding author), Taryn Waite (0000-0001-9286-2334, Joint Global Change Research Institute), Marshall Wise (0000-0002-2718-0051, Joint Global Change Research Institute), Harrison Suchyta (0009-0006-8744-7818, Joint Global Change Research Institute) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 044019-044019 |
| Publication date | 2026-02-10 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ae440e |
| OpenAlex | W7128508591 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 25 |
Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption
Aviation · Aviation fuel · Commercial aviation · Competition (biology · Diesel fuel · Fuel efficiency · Gasoline · Jet fuel · Renewable energy · Renewable fuels · Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies · Biodiesel Production and Applications · Forest Biomass Utilization and Management
| Highly cited | No |
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