Emergent constraints on the future East Asian winter surface air temperature changes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549581 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Anqi Liu (0000-0003-4699-3880, Nanjing University), Daokai Xue (0000-0001-7234-6500, Nanjing University), Xiaolong Chen (0000-0001-5456-4790, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Danqing Huang (0000-0002-3112-0617, Nanjing University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 064050-064050 |
| Publication date | 2024-05-13 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4a91 |
| OpenAlex | W4396850601 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 46 |
In East Asia, the climate variability in boreal winter is dominated by the East Asian winter monsoon, one of the most energetic monsoon systems that can lead to disasters. The key variable, the East Asian winter surface air temperature (SAT), has significantly changed over the past century and has substantially impacted agriculture, ecosystems, economics, and public health. However, its projections are limited by considerable uncertainties. Here, we identify the first leading mode that explains almost 29.6% of the inter-model spread in future SAT change. Our research delves into the evolution of present-day biases under future scenarios and their consequential impact on the SAT. Models with stronger western currents’ heat transport in the North Pacific exhibit a warmer North Pacific at mid-latitudes during historical periods. Additionally, these models consistently demonstrate stronger western currents in the future, contributing to the amplified warming of the western North Pacific, thereby warming Eurasia via the weakened trough and subtropical jet through barotropic responses to the warm North Pacific. Incorporating observational sea surface temperature constraints reduces uncertainties by 9.40%, revealing a more reliable SAT change pattern by the end of the 21st century
Atmospheric sciences · China · Climatology · East Asia · Geography · Meteorology · Precipitation · Surface air temperature · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5)
Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |