Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15549891 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Juan C Acosta Navarro (0000-0001-5375-0639, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, corresponding author), Javier García‐Serrano (0000-0003-3913-0876, Universitat de Barcelona), Vladimir Lapin (0000-0002-1669-5332), Pablo Ortega (0000-0002-4135-9621, Barcelona Supercomputing Center) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 064008-064008 |
| Publication date | 2022-05-04 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b |
| OpenAlex | W4229061309 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 45 |
Prediction skill of continental climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes is generally limited throughout the year in dynamical seasonal forecast systems. Such limitations narrow the range of possible applications by different stakeholders. Improving the predictive capacity in these regions has been a challenging task. Sea ice is a central component of the Arctic climate system and a local source of climate predictability, yet its state is often not fully constrained in dynamical forecast systems. Using the EC-Earth3 climate model, we study the added value of assimilating observed Arctic sea ice concentration on the NH extratropical climate in retrospective forecasts of summer and fall, initialized every spring over 1992–2019. Predictions in the North Atlantic and Eurasia benefit from better initialization of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic in a two-step mechanism. Initially, sea ice influences the central North Atlantic Ocean through an atmospheric bridge that develops in the first forecast weeks, subsequently leading to preserved skill in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout summer and early fall. Secondly, these long-lasting SST improvements provide better surface boundary conditions for the atmosphere and lead to more skillful predictions of circulation and surface climate in the Euro-Atlantic and Asian regions. In addition, our findings suggest that fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice models are likely necessary to study linkages between Arctic sea ice and midlatitudes, by better representing the interactions and feedbacks between the different components of the climate system
Antarctic sea ice · Arctic · Arctic geoengineering · Arctic ice pack · Arctic sea ice decline · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Extratropical cyclone · Forecast skill · Middle latitudes · Northern Hemisphere · Predictability · Sea ice · Sea surface temperature · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
The JRA-55 Reanalysis
Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation
How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events
Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting
| Highly cited | No |
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