Reconciling roles of the South China Sea summer monsoon and Enso in prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15551179 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Yazhou Zhang (0000-0002-5699-0176, Ocean University of China, corresponding author), Jianping Li (0000-0003-4976-4119, Ocean University of China), Yina Diao (0000-0002-9035-0439, Ocean University of China), Qiuyun Wang (0000-0002-0976-3798, Ocean University of China), Renguang Wu (0000-0003-4712-2251, Zhejiang University), Ting Liu (0000-0001-5479-7228, Second Institute of Oceanography), Yishuai Jin (0000-0002-6746-8789, Ocean University of China), Zhaolu Hou (0000-0002-2112-7743, Ocean University of China), Haili Wang (0000-0002-0310-8143, Chinese Academy of Sciences) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 19 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014041-014041 |
| Publication date | 2023-12-04 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ad122a |
| OpenAlex | W4389297638 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 51 |
The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is a remarkable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. The improved prediction of IOD is of a great value because of its large socioeconomic impacts. Previous studies reported that both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South China Sea summer monsoon (SM) play a dominant role in the western and eastern pole of the IOD, respectively. They can be used as predictors of the IOD at 3 month lead beyond self-persistence. Here, we develop an empirical model of multi-factors in which the western pole is predicted by ENSO and persistence and the eastern pole is predicted by SM and persistence. This new empirical model outperforms largely the average level of the dynamical models from the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME) project in predicting the peak IOD in boreal autumn, with a correlation coefficient of ∼0.86 and a root mean square error of ∼0.24 °C. Furthermore, the hit rate of positive culminated IOD in this new empirical model is equivalent to that in current NMME models (above 65%), much higher than that for negative culminated IOD. This improvement of skill using the empirical model suggests a perspective for better understanding and predicting the IOD
Anomaly (physics · Boreal · China · Climatology · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Empirical modelling · Geography · Indian Ocean Dipole · Monsoon · Physics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |