Reducing climate risks with fast and complete energy transitions
Applying the precautionary principle to the Paris agreement
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15551978 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Harald Desing (0000-0002-4363-9563, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, corresponding author), Rolf Widmer (0000-0002-8203-7872, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Pages | 121002-121002 |
| Publication date | 2021-11-05 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac36f9 |
| OpenAlex | W3211497640 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 12 |
Averting the climate catastrophe requires the transformation of the energy system. A wide range of energy transition pathways are being explored in literature, which limit peak heating during this century as likely as not to 2°C or 1.5°C. Growing understanding of the Earth system suggests that peak heating beyond 1.5°C may be an existential threat to the biosphere and therefore also humanity. Transitions that exceed this vital threshold with a high probability expose future generations to substantial risks without their prior consent. Here we advocate the precautionary principle and explore with a minimal energy transition model the energy requirements to minimize climate risks. Fast and complete transitions are energetically possible when temporarily increasing fossil emissions above current levels for the sole purpose of accelerating the growth of renewable energy capacity. This reduces the probability to exceed 1.5°C peak heating at best to 20%, highlighting the urgency for climate action
Biosphere · Climate change · Economics · Effects of global warming · Energy (signal processing · Energy system · Energy transition · Fossil fuel · Global warming · Natural resource economics · Physics · Precautionary principle · Range (aeronautics · Renewable energy · Runaway climate change · Climate Change and Geoengineering · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Environmental Science · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Materials Science · Ecology
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2022 - 2022 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |