Vietnam

In his December speech to the National Assembly, Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet reviewed the year's successes and concluded that 1993 was a pivotal year for Vietnam's development. There are many ways to measure success and Vietnam certainly can lay claim to some of those but caution is required, if only for the fact that current indicators are complex and contradictory. This paper reviews some of the economic successes of 1993 whilst heeding warning signals of eco nomic instability. To the surprise of casual Vietnam-watchers, the economy has experienced continued rapid growth. Unfettered confidence expressed by the Vietnamese Government and by trail-blazing foreign services companies tends to overlook shortfalls in infrastructure (for they are regarded as temporary), the lack of domestic investor confidence, widespread tax avoidance, and open corruption and smuggling, and nervously disregards the emerging social and political di lemmas created by structural adjustment and economic reform. For the foreign researcher, Vietnam presents atypical and paradoxical indi cators, which stymie socio-economic analysis particularly by international agen cies wishing to present the way forward for a flailing economy. To date, much of the macro-economic analysis by foreigners is limited to the analysis of offi cial data, and is often obscured by the researcher's own reflection or previous experience: those with wartime experience tend to see Vietnam through a North-South lens; those with previous experience in China carry with them as sumptions of similarity. The challenge for the foreigner is to discover what is submerged or hidden ? either by default or masterful design ? in the depths of state and civil society. The language of economic renovation is important. Different stories are told by different groups: the analysis offered by the government, the Party, state owned enterprises (SOEs), private domestic capital, foreign capital, subordi nate classes, and foreign researchers may all differ. Nevertheless, they are not neutral interpretations

Political science · Geochemistry and Geochronology of Asian Mineral Deposits · Vietnamese History and Culture Studies