Is the effect of ball possession important, even considering home-advantage and the shots on goal

Objective: To evaluate the effect of ball possession, considering shots and home-field advantage, on the winning in football games. Method: 100 matches from the European Champions League during the 2021–2022 season consisted the sample. Draws (n = 24) were excluded from the sample. All information was obtained from the official UEFA website. Binomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between match outcomes and the independent variables. Results: Belonging to the group with greater ball possession increases the chance of winning by 4.4 times compared to the group with less ball possession, even when considering home-field advantage. However, the effect of ball possession disappears when the shots are included in the model, with the latter becoming the only variable with a significant effect on the likelihood of winning. For each additional shot, the winning chance increases by 1.16 times. Conclusion: Ball possession increases the chance of winning football games as long as the shots on goal is similar to that of the opponent, regardless of home-field advantage

Geometry · Mathematics · Psychology · Sport Psychology and Performance · Sports Dynamics and Biomechanics · Sports Performance and Training