Tossing a Coin
Preferences for Rank-Ordering in Triage Decisions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 17664162 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Peer Keßler (0000-0001-5870-7138, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, corresponding author), Anatol-Fiete Näher, Anatol‐Fiete Näher (0000-0002-7908-0175, Hasso Plattner Institute), Ivar Krumpal (0000-0003-2149-2203, Leipzig University) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 149-168 |
| Publication date | 2026-04-17 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Social Justice Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0885-7466 • E-ISSN: 1573-6725 |
| Publisher | Springer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11211-026-00473-9 |
| OpenAlex | W7154744228 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 47 |
The discussion about the fair allocation of scarce medical resources through triage decisions gained momentum during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethical experts proposed to maximize the overall treatment benefits by prioritizing patients with the highest estimated post-treatment length of life, and apply a random lottery if the estimated post-treatment length of life for two patients is equal. However, implementing expert ethics requires the procedures to at least coincide with the preferences of the general public to ensure trust in institutions and social cohesion. Although there is a growing body of research on preferences of the public in triage decisions, evidence for preferences in accordance with this rank-ordering approach is lacking. To address this research gap, 1,998 English-speaking adults from North America and Europe completed an online conjoint experiment. We find a close match between the rank-ordering approach and participants’ preferences. We discuss implications and provide guidance for future research
Conjoint analysis · Lottery · Preference · Preference elicitation · Social policy · Triage · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Facility Location and Emergency Management
The Politics of Evidence (Open Access)
Principles for allocation of scarce medical interventions
The Moral Machine experiment
Vaccination as a social contract
The Toughest Triage — Allocating Ventilators in a Pandemic
Fair Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in the Time of Covid-19
Validating vignette and conjoint survey experiments against real-world behavior
Robert Veatch’s transplantation ethics
Fair allocation of scarce medical resources in the time of Covid-19
Vaccination status and intensive care unit triage
A theory of triage
Recommendations on Covid‐19 triage
Utilitarianism and the pandemic
Fair allocation of resources in the moral dilemma of triage
Explaining Preferences from Behavior
Measuring Subgroup Preferences in Conjoint Experiments
Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis
Public attitudes toward pandemic triage
Triage in Times of Covid-19
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |