Inference to the Best Explanation, Bayesianism, and the Screening-Off Challenge
A Critical Review
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 17672122 |
|---|---|
| Authors | William Roche (0000-0002-0135-0788, Texas Christian University), Elliott Sober (0000-0003-3130-1263, University of Wisconsin–Madison, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Publication date | 2026-02-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal for General Philosophy of Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0925-4560 • E-ISSN: 0044-2216 |
| Publisher | Springer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10838-025-09744-6 |
| OpenAlex | W7127312318 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 40 |
In their 2013 paper, William Roche and Elliott Sober used Bayesian confirmation theory and the probabilistic concept of screening-off to pose problems for the epistemological theory of Inference to the Best Explanation. Several philosophers replied to those criticisms and Roche and Sober refined and extended their critique in subsequent papers. This article assesses where the debate now stands
Bayesian inference · Bayesian probability · Causal inference · Frequentist inference · Inference · Philosophy of education · Philosophy of science · Probabilistic logic · Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics · Philosophy and History of Science · Philosophy and Theoretical Science
The Design Argument
Ockham's Razors
Evidence and Evolution
Evidentialism
The Direction of Time
A false dichotomy in denying explanatoriness any role in confirmation
The Philosophy of Evolutionary Theory
Explanation = Unification? A New Criticism of Friedman’s Theory and a Reply to an Old One
An internalist externalism
Systematizing the theoretical virtues
Can there be a Bayesian explanationism? On the prospects of a productive partnership
How Explanation Guides Confirmation
Bayesianism and Explanatory Unification
Confirmation and Law-Likeness
The Inference to the Best Explanation
Explanatory Consolidation
Favoring, Likelihoodism, and Bayesianism
Responses to Fitelson, Sansom, and Sarkar
The Abductivist Reply to Skepticism
The White Shoe is a Red Herring
Venetian Sea Levels, British Bread Prices, and the Principle of the Common Cause
The White Shoe Qua Herring Is Pink
The White Shoe
Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology 2
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |