The Unintended Consequences of German Deterrence

Bibliographic Data

ID17809656
AuthorsUlrich Kühn (0000-0001-6877-9098, Universität Hamburg, corresponding author)
Year2026
Publication date2026-02-24
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueGlobal Policy (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1758-5880 • E-ISSN: 1758-5899
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/1758-5899.70134
OpenAlexW7134174723
LanguageEN
References cited19

Germany's evolving deterrence posture boils down to continued participation in NATO nuclear sharing and an ambitious conventional rearmament program. Due to its non‐nuclear status and a result of decades of underinvestment, Germany prioritizes modern conventional weapons. A significant portion of Berlin's acquisition plans is earmarked for deterrence commitments along the Eastern Flank and for so‐called “deep precision strike” capabilities. The theory behind these plans appears less clear. A closer examination of capabilities and official statements suggests that Germany's evolving deterrence posture could produce unintended consequences that have not yet been fully acknowledged in policy circles. To strengthen deterrence, stability, and non‐proliferation, ideally, a novel arms control approach for Europe would complement German rearmament. Prospects for such an approach are nevertheless dim

Deterrence theory · German · Unintended consequences · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · Nuclear Issues and Defense · Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation

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