Volatility in transition
Fossil fuel dependence, renewable shifts, and financial risk across Europe’s Eastern divide
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 17830979 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lucia Morales (0000-0002-9111-813X, Technological University Dublin, corresponding author), Daniel Rajmil (0000-0001-8327-8822, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan (0000-0002-4145-4231, University of Limerick) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 34 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 1-30 |
| Publication date | 2026-04-29 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2573-9638 • E-ISSN: 2573-9646 |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/25739638.2026.2665118 |
| OpenAlex | W7159854424 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 37 |
Europe’s energy landscape has undergone profound disruptions following the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war, exposing deep structural vulnerabilities in the continent’s persistent reliance on fossil fuels. The crisis intensified political and economic tensions across the longstanding European Eastern divide, as the abrupt suspension of Russian gas disrupted energy security, triggered unprecedented price volatility, and accentuated disparities in the capacity of European Union Member States to pursue their green transitions. This paper investigates the asymmetric dynamics of fossil-fuel dependency and renewable energy expansion across ten Central/East European countries (CEEs, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) by applying a GARCH(1,1) and GARCH-MIDAS framework to examine short-run volatility characterizing the countries’ leading stock markets; such volatility stems from long-run macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures resulting from fossil fuels energy pressures. The research findings provide evidence of pronounced volatility clustering and slow mean reversion across countries, with the volatility half-life confirming substantial heterogeneity in shock persistence. Policymakers need to carefully consider the heterogeneous nature of volatility transmission mechanisms across the CEEs, the importance of country-specific structural and geopolitical factors, and their implications for volatility dynamics in small open economies during their energy transitions.
Fossil fuel · Petroleum · Renewable energy · Volatility (finance) · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Global Energy Security and Policy · Market Dynamics and Volatility
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Energy for sustainable development
Two are better than one
Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals
The effect of crisis on demography and employment in CEE countries
Economic convergence of Central and Eastern European countries in the European Union
Shifting from Academic ‘Brain Drain’ to ‘Brain Gain’ in Europe
Strategic resilience in the OECD
Understanding the European Union’s Response to the Russian war on Ukraine
China's Solar PV Manufacturing and Subsidies from the Perspective of State Capitalism
Decoding regional dynamics
The global politics of the renewable energy transition and the non-substitutability hypothesis
Global asymmetries in the rise of solar power
The Twenty Years’ Crisis of European Energy Security
Demand-side constraints on European solidarity for energy sanctions
European Integration and the War in Ukraine
The transnationalized reality of EU sanctioning
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |