The “Karaganov Debate”
How Policy Entrepreneurs Shape Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 17831761 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alexander Graef (0000-0001-7547-9245, European Heart Network, corresponding author), Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernández (Center for Naval Analyses) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication date | 2026-03-17 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Global Studies Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 2634-3797 • E-ISSN: 2634-3797 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/isagsq/ksag072 |
| OpenAlex | W7155513524 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 45 |
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, public references to nuclear weapons within Russia have surged. A key moment came in June 2023, when foreign policy commentator Sergey Karaganov published an article advocating a lower nuclear threshold and, if necessary, preemptive nuclear strikes against European targets. The article sparked controversy and calls to revise Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Although President Putin initially rejected such proposals, by November 2024, Russia adopted a revised doctrine reflecting elements of this debate. This article analyzes the shift as a case of foreign policy co-production involving domestic policy entrepreneurs both inside and outside the Russian state. We argue that bureaucratic insiders leveraged the efforts of outsiders to highlight the failures of Russia’s deterrence posture and bring the issue to the attention of key decision-makers. In turn, these outsiders amplified internal signals and assumed roles useful to both the military bureaucracy and the Kremlin. This dynamic served three functions: it allowed the military to indirectly introduce contentious concepts into the policy-process; it offered the Kremlin insight into elite preferences; and it enabled societal actors to contribute to foreign policymaking under conditions of personalist authoritarianism
Bureaucracy · Deterrence theory · Doctrine · Elite · Foreign policy · Nuclear energy policy · Nuclear strategy · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Nuclear Issues and Defense
Russia and the West from Alexander to Putin
Ideas and International Political Change
The Social Construction of Russia's Resurgence
Can Russia Modernise?
The Oxford Handbook of Foreign Policy Analysis
The operational code approach to profiling political leaders
Causation in International Relations
From International Institutionalism to Revolutionary Expansionism
The Crisis of Russian Democracy
Are Siloviki Still Undemocratic? Elite Support for Political Pluralism during Putin’s Third Presidential Term
Russian hawks and the state
An Age of Wars? Article Two. What Is to Be Done
Contested Identity and Foreign Policy
The limits of critique
Russia as a “Divided Nation,” from Compatriots to Crimea
Russia’s Authoritarian Policymaking
Geopolitical Imaginaries in Russian Foreign Policy
Co-production and Voice in Policymaking
Research–Practice–Collaborations in International Sustainable Development and Knowledge Production
Russian Foreign Policy
Policymaking in personalist dictatorships
The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Durability of Deterrence
Amending legislatures in authoritarian regimes
A Multiple Streams Model of U.S. Foreign Aid Policy
Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution
Managed Pluralism
Putin's Militocracy
Elections Without Democracy
Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How
Policy Entrepreneurs and Foreign Policy Change
NGOs and the policy‐making process in Russia
Legislative performance of the Russian State Duma
Authoritarian Amendments
Eurasian Polities as Hybrid Regimes
More than Putin
Taking the State at Its Word
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |