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Mortality trends and projections in Hong Kong

Datos Bibliográficos

ID18975652
AutoresJianping Wang (0000-0002-1890-3238, Shanghai University, autor de correspondencia)
Año2022
Volumen54
Número2
Páginas178-199
Fecha de publicación2022-03-15
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessNo
TipoARTICLE
RevistaChinese Sociological Review (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 2162-0555 • E-ISSN: 2162-0563
EditorialInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/21620555.2021.2007369
OpenAlexW4200216729
IdiomaEN
Referencias citadas31

Hong Kong has experienced a steady decline in mortality during the past several decades, and Hong Kong now life expectancy are among the highest in the world. Given the very low mortality already achieved, is there much more room for further improvement in Hong Kong's mortality decline? This paper examined how age-specific mortality by sex in Hong Kong has changed over time, and applied the Lee–Carter model to mortality projections in Hong Kong for next 50 years. When using Lee–Carter model, we dealt with the possible divergence in mortality projection for males and females over time, and take a shorter projection base period to meet the assumption of the parameters describing the age pattern of mortality decline being invariant. If we compare the results with the most recent official forecasts, projections on mortality decline in this paper are more optimistic than the official forecasts

China · Developed country · Geography · Life expectancy · Mortality rate · Population · Population projection · Projections of population growth · Research methodology · Sociology · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics

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