Anthromes, CO2 and Terrestrial Carbon – Session 10

1.30 - 1.50: Tropical forest carbon in an unequal world: a social science perspective, Vera Ehrenstein - Due to technical difficulties Vera's presentation will be re-recorded and posted at a later date. 1.50 - 2.10: Future forest growth in the UK – a case study of supporting land use decisions for net zero, Anna Harper 2.10 - 2.30: Showcasing NASA GEDI mission data for aboveground carbon monitoring and evaluation of carbon losses from LULC events, Adrian Pasqual 2.30 - 3.00: Realizing Rights, Securing Climate Outcomes, Alain Frechette Tropical forest carbon in an unequal world: a social science perspective Due to technical difficulties, this talk is not included and will be posted at a later date. The organisers would like to thank Vera for dealing with the venue's power and internet outage so professionally at the event, and we look forward to including her full talk online soon. The role of tropical forestlands in the carbon cycle is a planetary concern. As scientists use data and models to predict terrestrial carbon dynamics, decision-makers discuss whether they should rely on forests to offset emissions. Particular attention has been paid to the tropics because this is where uncertainties in the estimates are highest and carbon gains from reducing deforestation and maintaining forest cover are expected to be greatest. In Earth system science and global environmental policy circles, it is often self-evident that tropical forestlands matter primarily for the carbon sequestration of large-scale biomes. However, the political implications of this system-level view raise many questions from a social science perspective as tropical regions face the uncertain consequences of carbon quantification and related initiatives meant to address forest loss. Drawing on a literature review and interviews with natural scientists, development experts and state officials working in the Congo basin, our contribution focuses on the politics of forest carbon and its implications in this particular context, from limited statehood and aid dependency, to the phenomenon of extraverted science and lack of research autonomy. We ask whether the ‘net-zero culture’ contributes to reducing or reproducing existing inequalities in forest-rich countries and between research communities. Future forest growth in the UK – a case study of supporting land use decisions for net zero The UK has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, and the government plans to triple current tree planting rates over the next 25 years. This commitment brings up many questions – Where should the trees be planted? If they displace agriculture, where should the displaced food come from, and how should farmers be compensated? And how will future UK woodlands fare in a changing climate? We are developing a suite of models to address the multifaceted implications of land use change in the UK. The aim is to empower decision makers to understand policy options that would lead to a desired outcome – for example tree planting incentives to maximize greenhouse gas removal. A core component of this modelling framework is forest carbon storage and its sensitivity to climate, CO2, and management. Using km-scale climate forcing from an ensemble of projections, we model forest carbon with JULES, which typically represents the land surface in the UK/Hadley Centre climate models. We include developments to represent forest demography, multiple species, and management. Although higher CO2 levels are expected to enhance growth, the potential for warmer and drier summers pose regional threats to future UK woodlands, even in high mitigation scenarios. Showcasing NASA GEDI mission data for aboveground carbon monitoring and for applications The NASA GEDI mission is strongly supporting forest carbon monitoring making use of full wave-form laser data collected from the International Space Station. The presentation will showcase GEDI mission products over the windward sections of Hawai’i Island where important conflicts between C restoration opportunities and land stewardship have impact on the state’s C neutrality goals. The showcase of the Hilo-Hamakua coast will be covered as an example of decision-making involving sustainable agriculture, abandonment of forest plantations and its implications to meet C neutrality goals constrained by land availability. Realizing Rights, Securing Climate Outcomes In the context of increasing global greenhouse gas emissions, governments, the private-sector, and the broader international community increasingly call for the expansion and intensification of terrestrial carbon sequestration, as a means of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. Absent the political will to rapidly decarbonize the global economy and scalable technologies to capture source emissions, the vast majority of state and non-state actors are turning to land-based carbon dioxide removals (CDR) to meet their long term net-zero pledges, but emerging evidence shows that realizing national commitments would require the mitigation prioritization of almost 1.2 billion hectares of land, increasing the risk of conflict with other land use priorities, and the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities in particular. Owing to the opportunity costs of climate investments and the higher mitigation potential of tropical and sub-tropical forest areas, local peoples in low-and-middle-income countries are likely to bear the brunt of global climate ambitions. Some 2 billion people currently live in and depend on rural landscapes to meet their livelihood needs. They produce over 80 percent of the foods consumed in the developing world, and despite their role as essential stewards of the world’s biodiversity and remaining natural landscapes, their land and forest rights – including rights to the carbon stored therein – are inadequately recognized by states, jeopardizing the prospects of transformative actions that can accelerate progress towards greater equity, sustainable development, and poverty eradication

Agroforestry · Biome · Carbon accounting · Carbon credit · Carbon cycle · Carbon offset · Carbon sequestration · Earth system science · Economics · Ecosystem · Environmental resource management · Geography · Greenhouse gas · Natural resource economics · Political science · Terrestrial ecosystem · Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management · Environmental Science · Forest Management and Policy · Ecology