Determinantes estructurales y temporales de la violencia político-electoral en México

This article analyzes the structural and temporal determinants of political-electoral violence in México during the 2018, 2021, and 2024 federal elections. Using negative binomial regression models and electoral risk window analysis on a dataset of 1,051 violent events, the study identifies three significant structural factors. Municipal per capita income shows a positive association with violence, while partisan misalignment between municipal and state governments doubles the risk of violent events. Conversely, the prior homicide rate exhibits a negative association, suggesting dynamics of criminal consolidation or violence displacement. The findings reveal opposing temporal patterns by crime type: threats concentrate in the pre-electoral period and dissipate after election day, while homicides peak on election day and remain elevated during the following month. This differentiation points to distinct strategic logics operating within contexts of institutional fragmentation and local criminal governance

Criminal behavior · Homicide · Negative binomial distribution · Per capita · Poison control · Socioeconomic status · State (computer science) · Violent crime · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Politics and Society in Latin America · Populism, Right-Wing Movements