Was Nixon Doomed Before the Smoking Gun? Simulating the Impeachment and Trial of the Only US President to Resign From Office

Bibliographic Data

ID19219836
AuthorsPaul T Von Hippel (0000-0003-4498-4374, LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas Austin Texas USA, corresponding author)
Year2026
Volume56
Issue2
Publication date2026-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePresidential Studies Quarterly (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0360-4918 • E-ISSN: 1741-5705
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/psq.70052
OpenAlexW7164866893
LanguageEN
References cited12

Richard Nixon resigned the Presidency 3 days after the August 5, 1974 release of the “smoking gun” tape, which recorded Nixon conspiring to obstruct the Watergate investigation. While historians agree that Congress would have removed Nixon from office after the smoking gun, his chances beforehand are still debated. We simulate Nixon's chances by multiply imputing House and Senate votes on three articles of impeachment, building our imputation model from votes cast by the House Judiciary Committee before the smoking gun. Results suggest approximately a 95 percent chance that the President would have impeached and convicted for obstruction of justice and a 89 percent chance of conviction for abuse of power. Nixon's outlook was bleak even before the smoking gun

Conviction · Criminal justice · Economic Justice · House of Representatives · Impeachment · Presidency · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Judicial and Constitutional Studies · Jury Decision Making Processes

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