Winter life expectancy reduction in Europe
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19224264 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Valentin Rousson (0000-0001-8092-4446), Fred Paccaud (0000-0002-7583-8153), Isabella Locatelli (0000-0003-0870-1461) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Pages | 821-834 |
| Publication date | 2026-04-20 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demographic Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1435-9871 • E-ISSN: 2363-7064 |
| Publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.4054/demres.2026.54.26 |
| OpenAlex | W7154981007 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 16 |
BACKGROUNDMortality is known to be higher in winter than in summer, with excess winter deaths ranging between 5% and 30% in Europe.A recent study conducted in the USA sought to quantify the excess winter mortality in terms of life expectancy reduction, by calculating the difference between summer and winter life expectancy. OBJECTIVESWe aimed to calculate Winter Life Expectancy Reduction (WLER) in Europe, illustrate the extent to which this indicator depends on definitions of summer and winter, introduce a novel indicator of WLER based on a statistical model accounting for country-specific seasonal cycles, and compare men and women in terms of WLER. METHODSWLER indicators were calculated from weekly mortality data in 24 European countries over the period 2000-2019. RESULTSOn average, WLER was a few months higher in Europe than in the USA, while depending heavily on country and sex, as well as the chosen indicator.Our model-based indicator measured the highest WLER values, ranging from 11 months (Finnish men) to 36 months (Portuguese women), with a European average of 18 months for men and 22 months for women.In most countries, WLER was higher for women than for men, regardless of the indicator used
Excess mortality · Expectancy theory · Life expectancy · Mortality rate · Seasonality · Statistical analysis · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |