Labor Market Supply and Geopolitical Shock

Does Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Disrupt Inflows of Migrant Workers Into Visegrad Four Countries

Bibliographic Data

ID19225795
AuthorsMuhammad Ichsan Fadillah (0009-0000-8595-5006, University of Life Sciences in Lublin, corresponding author)
Year2026
Pages1-20
Publication date2026-05-16
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1556-2948 • E-ISSN: 1556-2956
PublisherTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/15562948.2026.2665107
OpenAlexW7161400832
LanguageEN
References cited53

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted traditional labor-migration patterns in Central and Eastern Europe. Using Eurostat first-residence permit data for the Visegrad Four countries (2015–2024), we analyze how V4 labor markets responded to the sudden decline in non-EU Eastern European employment migration. Our difference-in-differences analysis reveals a divergence in employment permit patterns following the Eastern supply disruption, with Asian origin countries recording approximately 21,000 more permits annually than Eastern origin countries relative to pre-2022 trends, representing a 306% increase in Asian permit levels from pre-2022 baseline. While this may reflect genuine labor substitution, the pattern could also arise from measurement artifacts as Ukrainians shifted from employment permits to temporary protection employment channels, which are excluded from Eurostat residence permit statistics

Geopolitics · Immigration · Irregular migration · Job loss · Migrant workers · Work (physics) · Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones · European Politics and Security · Global Socioeconomic and Political Dynamics

Tools

Open DOI