New Approach to Prehistoric Migrations

Bayesian Chronological Modelling and Ceramic Technology shed new Light on the Emergence of Corded Ware

Bibliographic Data

ID19230807
AuthorsErik Jasper Kroon (0000-0001-9019-2621, Leiden University, corresponding author)
Year2026
Pages1-25
Publication date2026-06-03
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueProceedings of the Prehistoric Society (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0079-497X • E-ISSN: 2050-2729
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/ppr.2026.10083
OpenAlexW7163416528
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited77

Recent advances in ancient DNA and isotope analysis have enabled archaeologists to detect migration events in the distant past. Yet, novel approaches evaluating the cultural impact of these migrations are lacking. As a result, archaeologists continue to debate problematic culture-historical scenarios in which migrants rapidly supplant passive indigenous communities. This study outlines a bottom-up, quantitative approach to prehistoric migrations. This approach uses Bayesian chronological modelling to investigate whether migrating and indigenous communities co-existed. In addition, a novel probabilistic comparison of ceramic technology traces whether cultural knowledge is exchanged between potters in these communities. This approach is applied to the emergence of Corded Ware communities in the Netherlands during the 3rd millennium BC. The outcomes demonstrate that this process was not a rapid replacement of indigenous groups by migrants, as sometimes stated. Instead, migrants likely co-existed with indigenous communities for centuries, learned ceramic production from them, and incorporated this knowledge into the production of characteristic Corded Ware ceramics. Furthermore, the outcomes suggest this scenario was likely commonplace for prehistoric migration in the 3rd and 4th millennia BC. As such, this study provides new approaches and insights which enable archaeologists to shed light on prehistoric migration, talk back to archaeogenetics on an equal footing, and contribute to broader societal debates on migration

Indigenous · Knowledge production · Prehistory · Probabilistic logic · Process (computing) · Production (economics) · Archaeology and ancient environmental studies · Cultural Heritage Materials Analysis · Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology

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