Flexible Bayesian approach for psychological modeling of decision making
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 19276537 |
|---|---|
| Authors | KAZUO SHIGEMASU (0000-0003-4838-136X, Tokyo Institute of Technology), AKIKO YOKOYAMA (Teikyo University) |
| Year | 1994 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 20-28 |
| Publication date | 1994-01-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Japanese Psychological Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0021-5368 • E-ISSN: 1468-5884 |
| Publisher | The Japanese Psychological Association (PUBLISHER • JP) |
| DOI | 10.4992/psycholres1954.36.20 |
| OpenAlex | W2461821257 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 10 |
In this paper, we propose the flexible Bayesian approach to describe the psychological decision making process. That is, by easing the Bayesian Axiom system, we come up with higher order probability and flexible utitiliy assessment. The purpose of this paper is to check whether the flexible Bayesian approach can explain some counter-intuitive examples. Using a questionnaire, we asked the subjects (undergraduate students, n=203) to evaluate the subjective probabilities and the betting preferences in the Ellsberg's Urn Problem and the Three Prisoners Problem. For the Ellsberg's Urn Problem, higher order probability was adequate to explain the paradox, more so than the non-additive representation of uncertainty. For the Three Prisoners Problem, higher order mathematical probability fails to explain the subjects' responses, which are stubbornly against Bayesian probability, but the fuzzy representation of higher order probability by means of the membership function was adequate for the explanation of this paradox
Axiom · Bayesian inference · Bayesian probability · Bayesian statistics · Econometrics · Economics · Expected utility hypothesis · Mathematical economics · Order (exchange) · Representation (politics) · Subjective expected utility · Artificial Intelligence · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Mathematics · Psychology
| Highly cited | No |
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